* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT CP082015 10/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 20 20 22 24 29 35 41 44 47 51 52 56 59 61 V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 20 20 22 24 29 35 41 44 47 51 52 56 59 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 20 19 19 19 20 23 26 30 36 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 14 9 11 9 8 7 4 4 9 14 15 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 10 12 11 7 6 5 4 0 3 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 150 161 138 133 144 131 177 145 123 76 86 64 358 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.1 29.9 29.5 29.4 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 160 160 164 165 165 167 165 161 160 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 59 61 63 69 69 69 67 67 67 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 11 9 9 9 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 182 178 176 173 161 160 153 143 137 146 143 151 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 7 35 20 19 35 25 34 3 4 9 10 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 4 3 1 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1729 1755 1782 1831 1882 2005 2173 2374 2608 2865 2709 2428 2160 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.9 12.6 13.3 14.0 14.6 15.2 15.7 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 171.6 172.1 172.5 173.3 174.1 176.0 178.3 180.8 183.5 186.3 188.9 191.5 194.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 6 8 9 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 42 44 50 55 50 46 60 77 74 62 61 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 27. 31. 35. 38. 41. 45. 48. 51. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. 4. 10. 16. 19. 22. 26. 27. 31. 34. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 171.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP082015 EIGHT 10/04/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.99 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.92 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.4% 3.6% 1.7% 0.7% 0.1% 2.7% 0.1% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP082015 EIGHT 10/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##