* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 42 47 53 57 57 55 49 46 44 35 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 42 47 53 57 57 55 49 46 44 35 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 43 45 45 42 37 33 28 22 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 18 17 14 14 12 12 15 22 27 16 16 48 44 71 80 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 1 2 1 -4 -5 -2 2 -3 -6 -3 6 10 12 0 SHEAR DIR 84 77 74 86 86 64 95 153 207 213 224 228 228 239 267 239 237 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.4 27.5 26.5 26.1 25.2 20.8 20.1 19.2 17.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 147 147 146 145 144 137 139 130 126 123 78 66 65 63 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -51.2 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.8 -52.2 -51.5 -48.7 -45.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 2 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 69 70 71 72 73 71 70 68 64 61 60 59 55 56 55 57 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 18 18 18 17 17 17 17 16 15 14 12 10 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 73 75 69 65 70 76 75 92 118 123 95 40 16 -57 -62 33 7 200 MB DIV 88 73 56 58 58 21 35 65 63 38 -23 24 52 85 48 82 62 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 -2 -5 0 0 1 4 -5 15 -4 -135 -94 LAND (KM) 630 602 573 546 518 483 464 476 458 438 513 740 1012 1511 1108 859 764 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.6 16.5 17.9 19.9 22.5 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 154.9 155.0 155.0 155.0 155.0 154.6 153.9 152.8 151.8 151.0 149.9 148.4 147.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 3 5 6 7 10 13 15 37 38 21 21 15 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 31 22 27 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 22. 18. 15. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -14. -22. -37. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 12. 18. 22. 22. 20. 14. 11. 9. -0. -14. -38. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.3 154.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/04/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.79 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.12 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.4% 10.2% 2.7% 1.3% 0.8% 2.7% 10.9% 5.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 1.0% 1.1% 5.1% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##