* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT CP082015 10/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 22 22 24 26 31 36 42 44 47 53 54 58 63 65 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 22 22 24 26 31 36 42 44 47 53 54 58 63 65 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 20 20 20 21 23 26 31 39 47 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 19 9 6 9 7 6 3 6 5 10 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 5 11 10 2 4 0 -1 -4 -2 -4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 140 152 166 134 121 142 155 158 132 61 109 111 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.2 29.5 29.5 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 158 159 162 164 165 168 169 162 161 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -51.0 -50.5 -51.0 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 61 60 59 61 64 67 70 68 66 68 69 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 17 16 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 189 192 189 187 183 175 178 169 167 156 160 160 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 14 16 28 30 19 32 33 22 21 23 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -1 2 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1729 1759 1790 1838 1886 1992 2131 2314 2535 2791 2805 2480 2167 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.9 10.9 11.3 11.9 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 171.6 172.1 172.5 173.2 173.8 175.4 177.4 179.8 182.4 185.2 188.1 191.1 194.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 13 14 14 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 42 43 46 49 53 41 51 64 89 56 58 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 31. 35. 38. 41. 45. 48. 51. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 6. 11. 17. 20. 22. 28. 29. 33. 38. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 171.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP082015 EIGHT 10/04/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.98 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.24 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.98 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.3% 5.7% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1% 2.3% 0.1% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP082015 EIGHT 10/04/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##