* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 46 53 60 67 70 72 69 68 64 61 57 53 48 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 46 53 60 67 70 72 69 68 64 61 57 53 48 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 41 45 50 55 60 63 64 60 55 49 44 39 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 10 14 12 15 9 6 16 19 19 12 14 16 19 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -2 -1 -2 0 1 -2 0 -2 4 0 0 2 4 7 11 SHEAR DIR 91 91 91 77 76 75 60 78 146 193 196 191 169 208 261 314 284 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.7 27.1 26.0 25.3 24.1 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 148 148 147 146 144 142 139 137 140 136 127 120 108 90 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.3 -50.6 -50.2 -50.5 -50.1 -50.2 -50.3 -50.4 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 65 66 68 69 69 70 69 72 68 68 64 59 59 58 59 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 17 18 19 20 20 22 21 22 21 20 18 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 78 72 66 65 59 60 59 73 98 137 130 111 74 26 -36 -86 -103 200 MB DIV 59 75 81 75 48 26 10 36 72 59 63 -3 18 -6 17 -1 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -18 -16 0 -5 LAND (KM) 679 647 616 587 559 526 498 480 488 498 481 458 512 796 1188 1636 1551 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.6 18.1 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 154.6 154.9 155.1 155.3 155.4 155.3 154.9 154.3 153.4 152.4 151.4 150.7 149.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 5 6 8 8 13 19 20 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 26 27 28 29 28 27 26 29 21 32 16 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 25. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 9. 7. 9. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 25. 32. 35. 37. 34. 33. 29. 26. 22. 18. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.9 154.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/04/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.80 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 3.0% 14.8% 6.6% 3.3% 1.7% 3.4% 7.4% 13.8% Bayesian: 0.6% 14.2% 6.5% 1.8% 0.3% 1.5% 1.3% 4.2% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##