* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/03/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 48 53 60 65 69 70 67 64 61 57 56 50 45 36 V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 48 53 60 65 69 70 67 64 61 57 56 50 45 36 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 43 48 53 59 62 63 63 60 54 48 43 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 3 4 5 8 8 10 7 14 23 22 11 12 22 31 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 -2 -4 -4 -3 0 -4 -4 -4 0 3 -2 0 2 12 16 SHEAR DIR 236 160 141 103 94 116 68 99 130 191 214 202 183 184 225 246 275 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.7 27.1 26.2 25.1 23.7 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 145 145 144 143 142 141 140 139 136 140 135 129 118 104 88 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -50.6 -51.2 -50.5 -50.6 -50.3 -50.8 -50.3 -50.6 -50.1 -50.7 -50.1 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 60 62 65 64 62 63 63 62 62 62 59 59 56 54 51 51 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 18 19 19 20 21 22 22 23 24 23 23 19 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 77 79 79 75 71 75 72 95 117 151 124 125 77 44 -20 -50 -63 200 MB DIV 55 57 69 63 41 10 11 26 32 76 38 15 13 12 38 18 13 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -13 -12 -38 -23 LAND (KM) 540 502 464 429 396 349 324 310 331 349 362 411 501 712 1187 1651 1561 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.6 18.6 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 154.1 154.3 154.5 154.8 155.1 155.3 154.9 154.4 153.7 152.9 152.0 151.0 150.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 11 20 23 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 28 30 31 32 31 30 33 34 21 34 16 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. -0. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 8. 7. 3. 2. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 25. 30. 34. 35. 32. 29. 26. 22. 21. 15. 10. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.3 154.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/03/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.85 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 40.5% 78.7% 64.6% 57.4% 34.2% 58.2% 37.0% 11.0% Bayesian: 5.3% 56.3% 36.3% 16.1% 4.4% 41.0% 36.5% 4.6% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/03/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##