* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/03/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 106 103 99 91 83 82 76 73 68 61 51 43 37 27 29 V (KT) LAND 110 109 106 103 99 91 83 82 76 73 68 61 51 43 37 27 29 V (KT) LGEM 110 109 107 104 100 90 80 73 71 70 63 54 47 42 40 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 27 26 25 25 23 24 17 23 30 49 52 54 44 46 37 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 4 6 3 3 2 1 0 -4 -3 -4 1 0 4 -5 4 8 SHEAR DIR 312 303 303 287 273 252 234 197 222 237 251 261 272 271 280 294 319 SST (C) 29.6 29.1 28.8 29.0 28.6 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.9 24.4 19.5 17.5 16.0 13.7 14.1 13.6 13.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 154 150 153 147 127 123 121 126 105 83 78 75 72 73 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 140 136 139 132 111 106 105 110 94 78 74 72 70 70 69 69 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.4 -50.1 -49.9 -49.9 -49.7 -50.1 -50.3 -50.7 -50.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -54.0 -55.8 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 6 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 59 61 62 62 62 57 53 54 55 56 62 72 76 78 71 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 35 36 37 37 38 37 39 38 39 41 41 40 39 39 36 43 850 MB ENV VOR 134 138 139 135 135 136 141 147 120 121 118 120 105 100 35 8 -116 200 MB DIV 73 56 66 67 36 45 24 31 15 27 43 59 53 65 44 16 -9 700-850 TADV 26 28 46 55 58 42 26 20 1 5 29 51 69 85 47 14 -8 LAND (KM) 475 605 737 895 893 836 841 764 675 649 485 733 1226 1365 774 266 29 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.8 26.7 27.9 29.0 31.5 33.8 35.9 38.0 40.2 42.6 45.1 47.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.7 72.8 71.9 70.9 69.9 68.2 66.8 65.2 62.1 57.1 51.0 43.9 36.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 14 15 14 13 14 19 24 28 28 27 27 27 26 25 HEAT CONTENT 48 48 35 38 34 7 7 5 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 9 CX,CY: 6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -14. -25. -34. -43. -52. -59. -66. -73. -78. -81. -83. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -14. -17. -21. -21. -17. -14. -11. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -18. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 4. 5. 6. 3. 0. -1. -4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -11. -19. -27. -28. -34. -37. -42. -49. -59. -67. -73. -83. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 24.9 73.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.06 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.6 to -2.7 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 342.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 2.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.3% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 27( 48) 21( 59) 12( 64) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 6 1( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 109 106 103 99 91 83 82 76 73 68 61 51 43 37 27 29 18HR AGO 110 109 106 103 99 91 83 82 76 73 68 61 51 43 37 27 29 12HR AGO 110 107 106 103 99 91 83 82 76 73 68 61 51 43 37 27 29 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 96 88 80 79 73 70 65 58 48 40 34 24 26 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 83 75 74 68 65 60 53 43 35 29 19 21 IN 6HR 110 109 100 94 91 88 80 79 73 70 65 58 48 40 34 24 26 IN 12HR 110 109 106 97 91 87 79 78 72 69 64 57 47 39 33 23 25