* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/02/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 116 113 110 104 96 87 81 74 72 71 66 57 57 50 39 V (KT) LAND 115 114 116 113 110 104 96 87 81 74 72 71 66 57 57 50 39 V (KT) LGEM 115 114 112 111 109 106 96 82 72 67 64 62 54 47 44 41 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 11 19 22 25 26 28 23 28 31 45 56 61 53 24 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 16 8 0 3 4 4 1 3 2 1 5 15 11 7 1 0 SHEAR DIR 3 357 302 300 305 285 275 252 219 210 222 239 256 263 261 240 275 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.1 27.2 26.8 26.9 24.7 22.4 13.8 19.4 14.3 14.5 14.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 163 160 157 153 139 128 123 125 107 94 74 85 74 74 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 143 146 144 142 137 122 110 105 107 94 86 72 80 72 71 71 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.2 -50.0 -50.0 -50.0 -49.5 -49.4 -49.6 -50.2 -50.2 -50.8 -50.6 -50.4 -49.9 -50.1 -49.9 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.8 2.5 3.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 61 63 59 58 59 60 61 62 57 50 43 35 31 38 41 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 33 36 34 35 38 39 37 37 37 39 42 44 42 47 44 39 850 MB ENV VOR 113 117 141 139 156 159 169 147 137 114 143 139 132 177 198 179 182 200 MB DIV 50 60 88 78 79 51 46 61 53 32 44 46 32 32 34 31 55 700-850 TADV 12 33 28 27 43 59 59 46 24 17 14 33 9 -8 -5 6 35 LAND (KM) 268 338 408 521 634 826 690 615 662 519 441 457 387 982 1504 812 158 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.9 24.5 25.4 26.3 28.5 31.0 33.4 35.7 37.8 40.0 42.2 44.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.8 74.6 74.4 73.8 73.3 71.8 70.6 69.6 68.4 66.6 63.0 57.3 49.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 8 10 12 13 13 13 13 15 21 27 32 34 32 30 30 HEAT CONTENT 57 50 48 53 58 50 33 10 15 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -12. -23. -33. -42. -50. -57. -64. -71. -76. -80. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -9. -14. -16. -14. -12. -9. -7. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 2. 1. 0. 2. 6. 8. 4. 8. 4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. -2. -5. -11. -19. -28. -34. -41. -43. -44. -49. -58. -58. -65. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 23.3 74.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.98 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 397.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.0% 8.5% 5.6% 8.2% 4.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.7% 1.8% 1.5% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 8.3% 2.4% 3.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 29( 66) 26( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 59 38( 75) 2( 75) 1( 75) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 114 116 113 110 104 96 87 81 74 72 71 66 57 57 50 39 18HR AGO 115 114 116 113 110 104 96 87 81 74 72 71 66 57 57 50 39 12HR AGO 115 112 111 108 105 99 91 82 76 69 67 66 61 52 52 45 34 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 102 96 88 79 73 66 64 63 58 49 49 42 31 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 90 82 73 67 60 58 57 52 43 43 36 25 IN 6HR 115 114 105 99 96 92 84 75 69 62 60 59 54 45 45 38 27 IN 12HR 115 114 116 107 101 97 89 80 74 67 65 64 59 50 50 43 32