* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/01/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 111 112 113 111 112 111 106 101 90 83 79 72 62 51 40 27 V (KT) LAND 110 111 112 113 111 112 111 106 101 90 83 79 72 62 51 40 27 V (KT) LGEM 110 112 111 109 108 109 112 107 91 77 67 58 51 43 37 32 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 8 4 6 7 14 20 28 32 34 38 39 54 62 63 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 15 17 16 11 5 5 6 8 6 0 6 8 6 4 3 1 SHEAR DIR 3 16 22 24 325 283 305 273 263 236 219 216 234 237 239 241 241 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.5 28.7 27.6 27.6 25.3 24.1 24.0 19.6 17.2 14.2 11.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 161 162 164 166 161 148 131 131 107 99 101 83 77 73 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 139 141 145 149 144 130 112 109 90 85 89 77 73 70 69 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -50.1 -49.6 -48.5 -48.5 -48.5 -49.4 -49.3 -49.2 -49.5 -49.9 -51.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.2 1.6 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 65 66 66 65 63 53 47 54 61 63 62 51 40 36 31 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 34 34 33 38 40 39 40 38 38 41 40 37 33 29 24 850 MB ENV VOR 68 85 94 105 124 152 192 237 183 137 122 128 160 165 113 21 -51 200 MB DIV 46 45 31 56 75 72 101 51 73 59 75 62 35 5 7 7 21 700-850 TADV 6 11 11 6 10 17 23 65 71 60 59 7 -13 -13 -18 7 1 LAND (KM) 300 286 269 307 349 539 611 504 295 162 150 124 154 148 247 204 690 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.6 24.0 25.7 28.0 30.8 33.1 34.9 36.5 38.1 40.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.7 74.0 74.3 74.5 74.6 74.3 74.0 73.9 74.0 74.2 74.2 73.7 70.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 5 6 10 12 13 10 8 8 11 19 25 27 27 26 HEAT CONTENT 56 56 57 54 50 64 50 23 18 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -15. -23. -31. -39. -45. -51. -58. -64. -68. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -11. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 5. 8. 7. 9. 5. 5. 8. 6. 1. -5. -10. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 1. -4. -9. -20. -27. -31. -38. -48. -59. -70. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 23.1 73.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 6.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.71 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.37 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 33.3 to 3.1 1.00 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.23 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.51 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 388.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.48 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.39 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.3% 22.2% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 20.8% 19.2% 13.1% 17.4% 14.9% 9.6% 5.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 14.3% 21.6% 11.2% 8.2% 2.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 17.8% 21.0% 14.5% 8.6% 5.7% 3.6% 1.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 30( 50) 29( 65) 30( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 26 27( 46) 20( 57) 20( 65) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 111 112 113 111 112 111 106 101 90 83 79 72 62 51 40 27 18HR AGO 110 109 110 111 109 110 109 104 99 88 81 77 70 60 49 38 25 12HR AGO 110 107 106 107 105 106 105 100 95 84 77 73 66 56 45 34 21 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 98 99 98 93 88 77 70 66 59 49 38 27 DIS NOW 110 101 95 92 91 92 91 86 81 70 63 59 52 42 31 20 DIS IN 6HR 110 111 102 96 93 93 92 87 82 71 64 60 53 43 32 21 DIS IN 12HR 110 111 112 103 97 93 92 87 82 71 64 60 53 43 32 21 DIS