* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/01/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 109 110 110 109 108 110 109 104 102 91 77 65 56 48 48 46 V (KT) LAND 105 109 110 110 109 108 110 109 104 102 78 51 34 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 105 111 112 110 108 108 111 108 98 87 61 42 31 30 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 11 6 0 6 13 12 27 25 28 31 31 31 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 14 16 19 17 9 -2 7 9 3 6 1 5 1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 16 6 13 352 270 276 278 269 253 224 217 211 224 224 241 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.3 28.5 27.8 27.2 23.9 23.2 21.8 22.6 14.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 160 161 164 165 157 145 135 127 96 92 87 91 69 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 138 139 144 147 140 127 116 107 82 79 76 80 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -50.2 -49.8 -48.7 -48.6 -48.9 -49.5 -49.2 -49.5 -49.7 -49.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.5 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.5 2.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 61 66 67 66 62 54 48 46 56 61 63 48 37 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 32 33 32 34 38 39 39 42 41 37 33 29 25 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 67 88 93 102 149 171 236 229 173 126 154 154 158 117 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 35 53 44 54 88 88 95 48 65 49 69 36 18 -11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 4 11 10 6 20 12 50 80 81 84 18 -10 0 -10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 349 326 303 323 346 499 528 521 284 77 0 -48 -72 -140 -123 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 23.5 23.4 23.7 24.0 25.5 27.7 30.1 32.5 34.8 36.5 37.8 39.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.5 73.8 74.2 74.4 74.7 74.8 74.8 74.8 75.1 75.5 75.9 76.2 75.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 6 9 11 12 12 10 8 8 12 15 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 55 54 54 53 51 53 48 20 23 18 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -6. -13. -20. -27. -35. -41. -48. -55. -60. -62. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 7. 8. 8. 12. 10. 4. -3. -9. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 5. 4. -1. -3. -14. -28. -40. -49. -57. -57. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 23.5 73.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.93 15.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.69 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.36 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.92 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.31 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.60 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.50 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.05 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.34 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.8% 40.8% 36.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 35.3% 32.0% 23.5% 26.9% 19.4% 22.0% 11.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 37.7% 34.1% 19.1% 17.8% 5.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 34.9% 35.6% 26.3% 14.9% 8.4% 7.9% 3.8% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 29( 48) 28( 63) 28( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 8 24( 30) 16( 41) 15( 50) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 109 110 110 109 108 110 109 104 102 78 51 34 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 105 104 105 105 104 103 105 104 99 97 73 46 29 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 105 102 101 101 100 99 101 100 95 93 69 42 25 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 94 93 95 94 89 87 63 36 19 15 15 15 15 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 85 87 86 81 79 55 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 109 100 94 91 89 91 90 85 83 59 32 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 109 110 101 95 91 93 92 87 85 61 34 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS