* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/01/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 106 107 107 106 104 108 109 108 102 79 55 46 41 40 39 37 V (KT) LAND 100 106 107 107 106 104 108 109 108 102 79 49 35 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 100 108 112 111 108 105 107 110 105 88 61 44 32 30 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 14 15 10 9 4 9 12 23 30 27 20 25 36 39 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 11 9 17 16 13 -2 8 7 0 0 0 1 6 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 23 15 9 13 4 298 287 271 239 216 195 221 205 212 222 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.1 28.1 27.8 23.6 22.7 21.5 22.8 15.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 163 163 163 164 154 139 135 95 89 85 92 70 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 140 140 140 143 146 136 122 115 82 77 75 80 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -50.1 -49.7 -48.5 -48.3 -48.3 -48.8 -50.4 -50.4 -50.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.1 2.5 1.6 1.4 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 62 66 66 66 61 52 42 52 59 70 71 61 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 29 31 31 31 36 38 40 41 30 19 16 15 17 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 49 67 83 85 114 153 212 244 148 161 183 177 198 138 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 15 42 49 35 63 79 111 56 68 55 53 45 43 23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 3 4 9 6 20 60 58 32 -3 -10 6 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 411 378 343 342 345 445 551 614 408 155 38 -7 -58 -142 -198 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.9 23.8 23.6 23.8 23.9 24.9 26.7 29.0 31.5 34.2 36.2 37.6 39.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.0 73.4 73.8 74.1 74.4 74.6 74.5 74.3 74.5 74.9 75.4 75.8 75.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 4 7 11 12 13 12 9 8 12 13 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 57 57 57 54 53 48 81 34 21 30 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -4. -10. -15. -21. -27. -34. -40. -47. -52. -54. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -6. -4. -2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 8. 11. 13. 14. -1. -17. -22. -22. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 8. 9. 8. 2. -21. -45. -54. -59. -60. -61. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 23.9 73.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -45.0 to 30.0 1.00 16.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.52 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.38 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.87 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.39 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.67 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 371.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.50 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.11 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.29 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 37.2% 43.4% 37.1% 28.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 47.1% 41.9% 33.0% 30.6% 23.2% 20.8% 15.3% 1.9% Bayesian: 27.9% 19.5% 15.5% 11.6% 3.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 37.4% 34.9% 28.5% 23.5% 11.3% 7.1% 5.1% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 27( 43) 27( 58) 26( 69) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 14 23( 34) 31( 54) 34( 70) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 106 107 107 106 104 108 109 108 102 79 49 35 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 100 99 100 100 99 97 101 102 101 95 72 42 28 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 100 97 96 96 95 93 97 98 97 91 68 38 24 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 89 87 91 92 91 85 62 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 79 83 84 83 77 54 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 106 97 91 88 86 90 91 90 84 61 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 106 107 98 92 88 92 93 92 86 63 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS