* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/30/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 20 18 18 21 26 30 31 32 33 34 38 41 45 47 50 V (KT) LAND 25 22 20 18 18 21 26 30 31 32 33 34 38 41 45 47 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 20 19 18 18 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 16 15 13 11 11 7 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 2 0 -3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 240 243 240 241 263 273 249 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 30.4 30.6 30.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 164 163 162 168 170 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 9 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 68 67 68 68 69 69 68 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -5 -20 -33 -35 -16 -4 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 23 35 17 16 21 51 24 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 3 -2 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 189 188 202 227 252 320 369 435 512 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.6 16.8 17.2 17.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.2 103.7 104.2 104.8 106.0 107.2 108.4 109.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 35 38 41 43 43 56 53 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -1. 4. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 39. 42. 46. 50. 53. 57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -7. -4. 1. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 13. 16. 20. 22. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.3 102.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/30/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.8 30.0 to 135.0 1.00 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.16 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.29 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.86 -4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.53 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.38 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.33 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.1% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 3.1% 1.3% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.0% 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 5.3% 4.8% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/30/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##