* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 09/30/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 76 78 80 80 84 86 89 94 95 84 73 60 52 51 49 V (KT) LAND 70 73 76 78 80 80 84 86 89 94 95 84 73 60 38 31 30 V (KT) LGEM 70 75 78 81 82 83 84 87 92 93 85 69 55 48 35 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 22 19 18 19 13 10 13 18 19 23 22 16 21 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 9 9 6 13 6 2 5 6 2 0 2 1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 19 18 26 20 22 18 344 308 299 271 235 200 203 216 198 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 28.2 27.5 26.9 24.9 22.4 20.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 163 163 162 162 162 162 163 140 130 123 104 89 80 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 140 140 139 139 142 142 143 121 111 104 89 78 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.0 -51.1 -50.2 -49.8 -48.9 -48.7 -48.7 -49.1 -49.4 -49.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.8 2.0 2.6 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.6 2.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 11 11 11 10 10 7 7 4 2 1 2 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 61 63 63 65 68 64 63 55 47 48 50 52 58 72 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 29 30 31 32 35 35 38 41 43 37 31 25 21 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 33 39 48 66 86 106 126 155 186 146 164 179 182 212 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 22 6 1 8 27 65 66 62 53 52 44 43 38 58 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 4 3 3 8 8 10 15 44 74 17 0 -2 -13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 532 492 451 423 396 411 520 639 712 504 351 238 203 109 -71 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.8 24.6 24.4 24.3 24.2 24.5 25.5 27.0 29.0 31.3 33.4 35.5 37.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.3 72.7 73.2 73.5 73.9 74.3 74.2 73.6 73.2 73.0 73.0 73.1 73.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 3 7 9 11 11 10 10 11 12 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 54 55 54 52 50 57 60 53 22 19 11 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -7. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 9. 12. 16. 19. 10. 0. -9. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 14. 16. 19. 24. 25. 14. 3. -10. -18. -19. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 24.8 72.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.27 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.36 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.70 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.71 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 282.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.61 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.41 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.19 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.0% 24.6% 17.2% 16.7% 6.9% 10.0% 11.8% 11.8% Logistic: 12.5% 20.0% 12.4% 6.5% 6.1% 10.9% 11.2% 9.3% Bayesian: 3.4% 24.6% 7.4% 2.0% 0.5% 5.6% 1.6% 1.6% Consensus: 12.6% 23.1% 12.3% 8.4% 4.5% 8.9% 8.2% 7.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 5( 9) 7( 15) 7( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 5( 6) 11( 16) 7( 22) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 73 76 78 80 80 84 86 89 94 95 84 73 60 38 31 30 18HR AGO 70 69 72 74 76 76 80 82 85 90 91 80 69 56 34 27 26 12HR AGO 70 67 66 68 70 70 74 76 79 84 85 74 63 50 28 21 20 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 62 62 66 68 71 76 77 66 55 42 20 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT