* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 09/29/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 64 65 66 67 68 71 76 81 84 82 77 82 79 76 75 V (KT) LAND 55 60 64 65 66 67 68 71 76 81 84 82 77 82 79 76 75 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 67 70 72 73 74 76 81 88 93 88 82 80 75 69 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 18 20 18 14 9 5 4 6 10 18 13 29 24 32 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 1 1 1 5 0 0 -1 4 3 4 8 0 1 4 SHEAR DIR 6 8 12 14 24 21 13 14 47 276 270 251 254 275 264 265 255 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 27.8 27.5 27.6 26.8 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 163 163 163 164 163 164 164 163 163 134 131 132 122 119 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 139 138 137 138 136 137 141 142 142 115 111 112 103 100 100 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -51.0 -50.6 -50.2 -51.1 -51.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 59 61 62 64 66 65 68 65 64 53 39 33 40 44 44 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 18 18 18 19 19 19 20 21 20 17 22 22 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 31 29 14 21 36 44 63 82 110 123 168 185 165 125 100 92 118 200 MB DIV 8 5 10 16 8 11 34 75 86 61 62 10 6 34 27 35 25 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 0 5 13 27 26 5 54 47 44 43 LAND (KM) 689 689 678 655 630 591 564 568 641 679 633 497 554 777 840 811 761 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.8 26.5 28.0 30.0 32.3 33.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.8 71.2 71.7 72.1 72.5 73.1 73.5 73.7 73.6 73.3 72.8 72.0 70.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 3 2 1 2 6 9 11 11 11 12 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 50 45 45 47 52 63 70 75 71 59 44 19 19 21 7 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. -3. -8. -1. -2. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 16. 21. 26. 29. 27. 22. 27. 24. 21. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 26.0 70.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/29/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.87 8.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.31 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.33 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.34 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.72 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.70 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.54 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.19 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.7% 30.4% 20.6% 13.7% 6.2% 12.9% 21.4% 27.7% Logistic: 14.9% 40.3% 26.6% 8.6% 6.2% 21.0% 24.6% 41.8% Bayesian: 6.4% 16.0% 5.0% 1.1% 0.1% 1.9% 0.9% 1.7% Consensus: 13.0% 28.9% 17.4% 7.8% 4.2% 11.9% 15.6% 23.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/29/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/29/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 3( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 60 64 65 66 67 68 71 76 81 84 82 77 82 79 76 75 18HR AGO 55 54 58 59 60 61 62 65 70 75 78 76 71 76 73 70 69 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 53 54 55 58 63 68 71 69 64 69 66 63 62 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 47 48 51 56 61 64 62 57 62 59 56 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT