* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/29/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 48 42 39 35 32 30 32 35 38 40 43 47 50 54 58 V (KT) LAND 60 54 48 42 39 35 32 30 32 35 38 40 43 47 50 54 58 V (KT) LGEM 60 55 50 45 42 37 33 29 27 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 16 20 25 19 25 22 20 14 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 2 6 5 1 7 4 2 0 9 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 240 229 229 240 233 227 234 271 290 282 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.2 29.9 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 164 164 165 165 167 168 166 164 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 64 64 65 66 69 69 70 74 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 9 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 13 26 26 23 1 4 -13 -48 -18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 56 84 56 20 23 26 29 29 60 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 2 -2 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 131 117 104 94 85 86 93 89 123 221 334 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.8 101.6 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.8 102.2 102.8 104.0 105.8 107.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 7 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 32 32 31 31 30 30 30 28 33 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -21. -25. -28. -30. -28. -25. -22. -20. -17. -13. -10. -6. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.4 101.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/29/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/29/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##