* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/28/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 72 70 67 56 48 43 41 40 39 42 44 46 47 48 49 V (KT) LAND 70 72 72 70 67 56 48 43 41 40 39 42 44 46 47 48 49 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 73 71 67 57 50 45 41 36 32 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 21 21 27 27 24 30 25 27 18 18 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 0 1 2 3 3 5 7 12 7 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 259 239 241 242 232 236 229 248 260 266 301 315 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 163 162 161 161 162 164 164 163 165 167 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.7 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 8 8 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 61 59 57 59 62 62 61 67 73 77 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 13 13 12 5 4 4 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 13 24 16 13 24 9 -13 -27 -37 -12 16 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 31 48 61 64 49 38 29 34 44 69 72 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 0 -1 0 -4 2 -4 3 -7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 151 128 105 90 74 69 56 83 142 167 199 244 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.4 102.3 102.1 102.0 101.9 102.1 102.8 103.8 104.8 105.5 106.3 107.0 107.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 1 1 3 4 5 4 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 29 28 28 27 27 27 28 29 32 40 52 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. -18. -19. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -10. -14. -14. -16. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 0. -3. -14. -22. -27. -29. -30. -31. -28. -26. -24. -23. -22. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.6 102.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/28/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 4.5% 1.7% 0.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/28/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##