* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/27/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 56 55 54 48 41 39 34 32 34 39 42 44 46 47 V (KT) LAND 50 53 55 56 55 54 48 41 39 34 32 34 39 42 44 46 47 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 52 52 51 46 41 38 37 35 32 30 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 16 17 19 23 15 19 28 25 26 17 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 -2 -2 -1 4 0 3 2 1 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 277 275 273 264 258 241 239 249 249 274 291 311 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 167 167 167 165 165 164 165 164 165 166 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 8 10 8 8 8 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 64 63 60 59 62 64 64 65 70 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 17 16 15 11 6 4 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -15 -6 -6 14 22 20 14 0 -9 -23 -16 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 77 79 71 64 61 94 32 36 33 33 59 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 6 4 2 1 0 -2 0 -1 -2 3 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 332 295 259 221 183 137 110 105 100 81 110 167 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.3 17.1 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.0 102.8 102.7 102.4 102.2 101.9 101.9 102.1 102.5 103.0 103.6 104.3 105.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 3 3 2 1 2 3 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 48 42 37 35 33 30 30 29 29 30 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 18. 20. 22. 25. 27. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -13. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -10. -16. -15. -17. -18. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. -2. -9. -11. -16. -18. -16. -11. -8. -6. -4. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.0 103.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/27/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 32.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 23.6% 7.9% 4.2% 3.4% 2.7% 1.3% 2.3% Bayesian: 1.5% 8.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.8% 21.8% 2.9% 1.5% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/27/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##