* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 36 34 31 29 28 28 27 26 27 29 31 35 36 36 36 V (KT) LAND 45 40 36 34 31 29 28 28 27 26 27 29 31 35 36 36 36 V (KT) LGEM 45 41 38 35 32 28 26 24 24 25 25 26 27 28 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 32 30 31 31 23 22 20 26 26 22 23 20 11 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 1 -3 -6 -5 -2 -4 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 259 257 252 255 258 265 260 261 259 254 243 238 219 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.8 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 148 149 150 153 154 155 156 156 155 156 161 166 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 56 56 59 60 61 62 64 63 63 60 60 76 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 11 11 12 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 9 13 32 38 43 55 56 78 89 103 128 140 137 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -7 15 37 52 61 48 49 41 60 54 69 74 101 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -2 -3 0 1 2 2 1 1 0 -2 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 349 330 324 330 351 422 498 597 696 800 879 953 1044 954 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.3 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.5 15.3 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.3 14.1 13.8 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 153.7 154.3 154.9 155.5 156.2 157.4 158.5 159.6 160.7 161.8 162.9 164.2 165.4 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 6 7 19 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 31 29 28 30 44 54 52 47 44 41 42 50 39 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 21. 23. 25. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -16. -18. -20. -20. -20. -18. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -18. -19. -18. -16. -14. -10. -9. -9. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.4 153.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/27/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.69 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.25 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##