* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/27/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 47 42 38 32 27 22 19 18 17 19 23 26 31 35 38 V (KT) LAND 55 52 47 42 38 32 27 22 19 18 17 19 23 26 31 35 38 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 48 44 38 32 28 26 25 24 23 23 23 24 27 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 27 33 34 37 35 29 29 26 30 24 25 19 15 12 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 0 -1 -4 0 -1 -1 -4 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 255 251 256 252 256 258 255 262 261 248 241 233 229 213 177 177 174 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.6 30.2 30.1 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 145 146 148 149 151 154 154 153 154 155 160 165 163 163 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 57 59 60 56 55 55 54 60 63 67 67 73 75 81 82 83 84 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 11 11 12 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 4 13 12 13 25 49 45 70 65 79 78 99 112 131 143 141 143 200 MB DIV 11 8 -2 5 21 32 47 40 51 54 69 82 110 108 123 100 113 700-850 TADV 8 2 1 -1 -3 0 1 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 375 343 314 290 266 258 304 367 447 550 649 761 856 980 1141 1145 1064 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 16.9 16.9 16.9 16.8 16.6 16.3 16.1 15.8 15.4 15.1 14.8 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 152.5 153.0 153.5 154.0 154.5 155.6 156.5 157.5 158.4 159.4 160.4 161.5 162.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 8 4 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 47 41 34 30 27 26 29 40 52 51 47 45 42 40 45 46 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -18. -21. -23. -25. -26. -26. -24. -22. -21. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -13. -17. -23. -28. -33. -36. -37. -38. -36. -32. -29. -24. -20. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.9 152.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/27/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.57 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.13 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/27/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##