* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/25/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 41 41 40 39 36 34 31 31 31 30 31 31 31 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 41 41 40 39 36 34 31 31 31 30 31 31 31 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 39 37 34 30 28 25 24 23 22 21 20 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 12 14 16 15 20 19 23 19 24 26 31 33 28 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 0 5 0 0 0 -3 2 -2 -4 -6 -7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 300 291 276 275 276 264 258 259 264 258 266 269 258 262 273 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 144 146 147 148 147 147 146 146 148 147 143 148 149 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 61 61 62 60 59 59 59 58 56 57 55 49 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 12 9 9 8 8 6 7 7 6 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 19 24 24 13 0 3 23 37 47 54 72 86 71 79 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 21 25 42 38 42 14 16 25 44 36 18 21 37 30 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 4 5 5 7 3 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 727 647 566 486 408 292 225 215 235 264 319 419 517 403 697 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 16.9 16.6 16.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.9 150.5 151.1 151.8 152.4 153.9 155.0 155.9 156.6 157.2 157.9 158.9 159.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 5 0 5 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 32 38 47 46 31 27 27 29 32 37 40 40 39 35 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 28. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 5. 4. 1. -1. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.9 149.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/25/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.22 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 4.5% 13.3% 4.9% 3.1% 1.6% 2.7% 2.6% 4.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/25/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##