* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/23/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 37 39 40 41 43 44 45 45 45 43 42 42 43 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 37 39 40 41 43 44 45 45 45 43 42 42 43 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 34 33 32 32 34 36 39 42 44 44 42 41 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 21 23 25 19 20 10 17 9 14 12 18 24 24 21 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 3 3 3 -2 0 -2 0 -1 -1 3 -1 0 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 291 289 286 282 272 285 281 285 274 272 240 251 247 282 305 320 323 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.6 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 127 125 126 129 132 135 138 141 146 146 145 141 140 143 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 113 111 110 110 113 115 118 120 122 123 123 122 119 119 122 127 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -55.0 -55.4 -55.5 -55.8 -56.0 -56.4 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 47 46 46 45 44 43 44 47 48 49 52 52 54 51 48 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 19 18 17 15 13 13 11 11 9 10 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 52 62 65 61 49 40 25 17 11 0 29 12 0 -12 -20 -25 -33 200 MB DIV 8 0 6 28 41 13 13 4 5 1 -3 4 3 -16 1 -8 3 700-850 TADV 3 1 5 10 8 0 1 0 0 1 0 -1 -5 -2 -8 0 -5 LAND (KM) 1760 1790 1819 1848 1878 1933 1975 1976 1973 1999 2012 1991 1974 1926 1874 1793 1720 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.5 20.7 21.4 22.1 22.7 23.4 24.3 25.0 25.2 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.8 46.5 46.2 46.1 46.0 46.3 46.7 47.2 47.5 47.5 47.6 47.9 48.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 8 8 8 11 15 18 22 29 42 41 37 32 29 28 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):175/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 20. 21. 21. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -15. -17. -18. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 7. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.9 46.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/23/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.17 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.35 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.81 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 233.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.66 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.47 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 10.1% 7.0% 5.0% 1.8% 5.8% 6.8% 8.2% Logistic: 1.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.7% 2.6% 1.7% 0.6% 2.0% 2.4% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/23/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/23/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 37 39 40 41 43 44 45 45 45 43 42 42 43 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 36 38 39 40 42 43 44 44 44 42 41 41 42 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 34 35 36 38 39 40 40 40 38 37 37 38 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 27 28 29 31 32 33 33 33 31 30 30 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT