* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/23/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 33 36 38 41 44 47 49 50 50 49 43 36 34 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 33 36 38 41 44 47 49 50 50 49 43 36 34 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 31 30 29 30 30 32 35 39 42 45 44 39 33 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 33 29 22 20 19 13 11 10 12 15 19 30 35 45 42 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 2 1 0 2 3 1 -1 -3 -3 -1 -3 1 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 285 294 301 295 285 301 278 304 240 288 260 268 251 265 268 295 304 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 129 128 128 129 131 137 143 145 145 143 139 136 134 129 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 113 112 112 114 115 121 126 126 124 122 117 112 111 106 103 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -55.1 -55.2 -55.9 -55.8 -56.4 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 60 59 55 52 50 46 46 47 48 50 54 61 63 60 53 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 16 16 16 15 14 15 14 15 16 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 16 24 39 49 57 56 40 21 11 7 12 18 8 0 -6 -56 -81 200 MB DIV -7 -24 -15 0 0 11 17 -1 19 11 30 9 28 35 -9 -31 -42 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 3 0 0 0 -1 0 1 0 -6 -7 -8 -5 LAND (KM) 1865 1866 1868 1877 1886 1939 2018 2114 2191 2164 2177 2233 2254 2208 2171 2147 2132 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 20.9 20.7 20.7 20.6 20.9 21.6 22.6 23.6 24.6 25.6 26.6 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.9 46.5 46.2 45.9 45.6 45.1 44.9 45.0 45.3 45.9 46.1 45.9 45.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 3 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 3 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 11 10 10 13 18 35 44 39 40 39 27 20 17 13 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 21. 22. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -11. -16. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -7. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 8. 1. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.0 46.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/23/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.73 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 6.6% Logistic: 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 0.1% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/23/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/23/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 33 33 33 36 38 41 44 47 49 50 50 49 43 36 34 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 33 36 38 41 44 47 49 50 50 49 43 36 34 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 34 36 39 42 45 47 48 48 47 41 34 32 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 28 30 33 36 39 41 42 42 41 35 28 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT