* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/22/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 40 41 44 44 45 45 45 53 54 59 64 66 62 56 51 V (KT) LAND 40 39 40 41 44 44 45 45 45 53 54 59 64 66 62 56 51 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 39 40 40 41 39 36 35 37 40 45 50 54 55 51 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 15 16 17 23 25 23 16 18 11 17 16 18 22 42 62 73 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 9 10 7 3 8 6 0 1 -3 -3 -2 0 -3 -3 -14 SHEAR DIR 269 281 286 286 292 312 297 299 296 271 277 256 252 235 241 247 257 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.5 29.0 29.2 28.5 28.4 27.6 26.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 135 134 130 130 134 136 142 149 153 142 142 132 124 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 120 120 120 118 114 114 117 120 124 129 132 123 123 115 108 97 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.9 -54.0 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 8 5 2 1 700-500 MB RH 66 63 60 57 55 51 51 47 44 46 48 50 54 60 58 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 18 20 23 22 22 22 20 22 21 22 26 29 31 32 33 850 MB ENV VOR 0 2 3 15 26 45 57 41 19 25 7 3 -11 27 24 3 -67 200 MB DIV 21 35 40 22 21 8 3 32 13 24 3 19 38 61 41 46 -14 700-850 TADV 3 4 7 0 0 7 3 3 1 3 -2 2 6 3 2 -5 -12 LAND (KM) 1756 1776 1797 1816 1834 1844 1888 1954 1994 1988 1976 1983 2038 2138 1983 1810 1674 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.1 20.9 20.7 21.0 21.7 22.5 23.6 24.5 25.5 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.8 48.5 48.2 47.8 47.4 46.7 46.4 46.5 46.8 47.4 47.8 48.1 48.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 4 4 2 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 9 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 18 16 14 12 12 15 18 24 35 41 29 25 11 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -12. -18. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 1. 3. 1. 2. 6. 10. 10. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 13. 14. 19. 24. 26. 22. 16. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.4 48.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/22/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.42 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.31 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.50 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.74 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.51 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 11.3% 7.9% 5.7% 2.7% 6.1% 5.2% 5.2% Logistic: 0.9% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.6% 3.0% 2.0% 0.9% 2.3% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/22/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/22/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 40 41 44 44 45 45 45 53 54 59 64 66 62 56 51 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 44 44 45 45 45 53 54 59 64 66 62 56 51 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 40 40 41 41 41 49 50 55 60 62 58 52 47 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 33 34 34 34 42 43 48 53 55 51 45 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT