* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MALIA CP052015 09/22/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 37 39 43 41 32 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 37 39 43 41 32 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 32 31 30 28 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 35 38 37 35 21 8 7 12 4 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 5 5 9 6 0 1 -4 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 269 265 266 260 253 232 296 43 98 107 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.2 26.5 25.8 24.8 21.5 17.6 15.4 12.8 11.2 10.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 137 131 124 115 81 65 64 63 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -54.2 -54.9 -56.2 -56.9 -57.1 -57.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 -1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 55 56 55 52 54 56 64 75 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 12 11 11 16 16 13 11 10 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 39 28 23 51 94 52 34 47 133 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 25 31 34 100 34 35 27 46 64 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 26 25 26 14 20 37 16 30 23 27 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1324 1422 1525 1690 1860 2375 1978 1571 1198 854 574 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.1 28.3 29.5 31.1 32.7 36.8 40.7 43.7 46.8 50.1 53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 172.0 172.5 172.9 173.8 174.6 177.8 181.4 184.2 186.3 187.9 189.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 15 18 21 24 21 18 17 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 793 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -3. -11. -16. -20. -22. -23. -25. -29. -34. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 7. 4. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 9. 5. 1. -3. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -2. 1. 2. -2. -6. -7. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 6. -3. -16. -24. -23. -29. -36. -49. -58. -68. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 27.1 172.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP052015 MALIA 09/22/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.62 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP052015 MALIA 09/22/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##