* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/21/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 44 40 39 44 41 38 40 42 44 46 48 47 47 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 44 40 39 44 41 38 40 42 44 46 48 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 44 44 41 40 39 36 33 33 34 37 41 44 46 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 18 24 30 25 23 19 19 11 13 9 18 20 30 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 10 10 11 4 6 5 7 1 3 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 222 257 275 284 292 297 298 295 300 301 316 281 270 257 242 253 256 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.7 29.1 29.2 28.3 28.4 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 138 137 137 136 134 133 134 134 137 145 151 153 139 141 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 119 119 118 118 119 116 115 116 117 120 126 131 132 120 120 111 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 -55.6 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 8 6 3 700-500 MB RH 68 70 68 65 64 59 53 47 43 44 47 50 54 57 64 63 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 18 18 17 18 21 19 16 15 14 13 13 13 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 4 0 5 14 20 34 59 64 43 33 22 16 2 -3 17 0 -17 200 MB DIV 66 44 39 30 25 -20 18 33 23 9 4 17 16 28 29 21 19 700-850 TADV 2 -1 0 -1 2 -5 0 0 5 -1 1 -1 0 0 0 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1752 1769 1787 1807 1826 1846 1862 1885 1910 1926 1931 1908 1913 1953 2038 2103 1989 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.3 21.5 21.6 21.6 21.3 21.1 21.2 21.5 22.1 22.9 23.9 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.5 48.5 48.5 48.3 48.1 47.6 47.2 46.9 47.0 47.3 47.8 48.3 48.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 2 2 2 2 3 2 1 2 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 21 20 19 16 15 15 15 16 20 28 37 37 26 24 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 822 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 3. -1. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -6. -1. -4. -7. -5. -3. -1. 1. 3. 2. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.0 48.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/21/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.45 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.50 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.03 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.78 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.46 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.35 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.3% 9.2% 7.0% 3.7% 7.1% 5.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 5.0% 3.3% 2.5% 1.3% 2.8% 2.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/21/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/21/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 45 44 40 39 44 41 38 40 42 44 46 48 47 47 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 43 39 38 43 40 37 39 41 43 45 47 46 46 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 36 35 40 37 34 36 38 40 42 44 43 43 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 30 29 34 31 28 30 32 34 36 38 37 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT