* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/20/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 42 43 42 42 44 45 45 49 48 49 52 56 61 68 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 42 43 42 42 44 45 45 49 48 49 52 56 61 68 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 42 42 43 44 46 47 46 44 44 45 48 52 58 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 7 4 1 5 9 20 22 23 19 19 15 19 15 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 4 9 13 9 12 10 3 3 -1 -4 -3 -3 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 273 281 286 260 255 237 275 298 298 311 308 290 280 280 279 269 228 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 138 138 138 139 140 139 139 140 140 145 148 150 156 158 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 127 128 127 124 121 120 119 119 120 120 125 129 131 137 138 132 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 65 68 67 67 67 67 64 59 55 52 51 48 50 51 51 54 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 13 14 15 17 16 18 16 15 15 17 20 24 850 MB ENV VOR 12 12 8 13 13 3 19 26 45 42 42 23 15 1 -1 -2 23 200 MB DIV 53 39 43 33 34 47 45 7 2 5 11 5 15 18 24 17 55 700-850 TADV -10 -7 -5 -2 0 0 2 0 0 -1 1 0 0 0 0 2 5 LAND (KM) 1619 1642 1667 1698 1713 1719 1726 1726 1726 1726 1725 1724 1739 1733 1716 1703 1700 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.3 21.0 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.3 21.5 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.6 46.4 47.3 47.8 48.4 48.9 49.0 49.0 49.0 49.0 49.1 49.3 49.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 9 8 6 2 1 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 17 17 17 21 22 22 22 22 24 26 29 30 31 30 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 797 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -5. -6. -6. -4. -2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 9. 8. 9. 12. 16. 21. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.9 45.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/20/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.74 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.75 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.76 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.58 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.34 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 18.1% 12.0% 8.9% 5.6% 10.6% 13.1% 13.6% Logistic: 1.1% 5.1% 2.5% 1.2% 0.3% 2.9% 2.1% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.9% 4.9% 3.4% 2.0% 4.5% 5.1% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/20/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/20/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 41 42 43 42 42 44 45 45 49 48 49 52 56 61 68 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 42 41 41 43 44 44 48 47 48 51 55 60 67 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 37 37 39 40 40 44 43 44 47 51 56 63 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 30 30 32 33 33 37 36 37 40 44 49 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT