* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE CP052015 09/20/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 33 37 40 46 44 38 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 33 37 40 46 44 38 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 29 29 28 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 26 30 28 29 33 32 37 40 40 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 2 3 6 8 11 8 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 258 259 251 245 258 265 247 248 237 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.0 26.6 25.1 23.5 21.7 18.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 154 152 145 131 116 99 81 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.7 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 59 60 59 57 55 53 50 52 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 15 16 19 19 21 19 17 16 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 60 66 87 82 61 73 60 90 90 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 58 66 103 80 62 92 48 56 60 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 10 9 19 27 27 36 32 65 53 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1463 1409 1366 1336 1319 1361 1498 1721 2001 2344 2129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 21.1 22.2 23.4 24.6 27.1 29.6 32.2 34.9 37.8 40.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 174.2 173.9 173.5 173.2 172.8 172.4 172.5 173.2 174.4 176.3 178.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 12 13 12 13 14 15 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 48 50 52 37 25 13 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 16. 20. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. -1. -9. -22. -35. -43. -47. -49. -52. -56. -65. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 8. 7. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 15. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 3. 7. 10. 16. 14. 8. -3. -13. -16. -20. -26. -31. -39. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.0 174.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP052015 FIVE 09/20/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.91 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP052015 FIVE 09/20/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##