* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE CP052015 09/19/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 41 46 51 54 54 48 39 33 29 21 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 41 46 51 54 54 48 39 33 29 21 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 34 35 34 33 32 30 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 22 25 24 25 26 27 29 31 41 40 30 25 14 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 -3 -1 4 5 2 5 5 11 4 -2 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 231 242 240 241 253 240 248 255 248 238 222 224 240 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.3 27.5 27.2 26.4 23.8 21.7 19.6 16.2 11.8 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 160 158 156 155 147 139 137 130 103 81 63 64 66 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -51.3 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 5 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 60 63 63 62 60 59 58 57 62 57 57 54 68 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 15 16 17 17 18 18 18 18 20 20 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 50 66 77 68 66 80 71 48 42 68 106 144 146 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 22 7 47 61 65 73 60 73 55 92 105 86 24 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 6 4 5 9 12 27 29 42 43 55 64 45 16 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1495 1426 1362 1322 1287 1260 1283 1380 1564 1865 2202 2062 1901 1425 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.2 19.9 20.7 21.5 23.4 25.5 27.9 30.9 34.6 37.8 40.4 43.0 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 174.1 173.7 173.2 173.0 172.7 172.4 172.2 172.2 172.3 172.7 173.9 175.7 177.6 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 10 11 13 17 17 16 15 20 24 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 64 69 74 63 48 28 11 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 10 CX,CY: 6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 24. 24. 22. 19. 15. 14. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -0. -6. -14. -25. -36. -40. -42. -43. -47. -55. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 16. 21. 24. 24. 18. 9. 3. -1. -9. -17. -25. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.4 174.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP052015 FIVE 09/19/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.94 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.67 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 3.8% 9.3% 2.9% 1.7% 0.8% 2.6% 2.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP052015 FIVE 09/19/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##