* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092015 09/16/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 25 24 25 23 22 24 24 26 27 29 31 33 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 25 24 25 23 22 24 24 26 27 29 31 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 23 21 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 10 15 22 20 27 25 26 27 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 9 4 2 8 3 9 3 5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 254 251 264 261 259 263 245 229 237 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.7 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 126 126 127 132 132 134 137 146 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 121 118 117 117 121 120 122 123 131 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -55.2 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 58 57 56 58 54 53 56 56 57 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 41 36 30 29 30 38 40 41 49 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 88 60 49 52 10 4 15 26 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 5 6 6 2 0 1 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1426 1462 1502 1547 1595 1678 1747 1767 1734 1631 1535 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.7 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.8 20.0 21.1 22.2 23.2 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.4 44.7 45.0 45.3 45.5 46.2 47.3 48.4 49.6 50.9 52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 18 10 8 8 11 12 15 21 25 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 789 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -5. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 44.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092015 NINE 09/16/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.47 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.49 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.08 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.77 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.66 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.47 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 65.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.31 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 11.0% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.2% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092015 NINE 09/16/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092015 NINE 09/16/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 27 25 24 25 23 22 24 24 26 27 29 31 33 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 26 24 23 24 22 21 23 23 25 26 28 30 32 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 20 19 20 18 17 19 19 21 22 24 26 28 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT