* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072015 09/09/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 22 22 24 26 27 26 27 28 31 35 37 39 40 41 V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 22 22 24 26 27 26 27 28 31 35 37 39 40 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 19 23 24 23 19 23 24 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 2 0 0 0 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 252 259 267 276 266 266 259 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 142 143 143 151 154 157 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 142 143 143 151 154 157 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 43 42 44 46 46 50 52 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -17 -22 -23 -25 -30 -32 -25 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 3 24 16 -5 -4 -12 12 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -9 -10 -4 -3 -5 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1224 1150 1091 1051 961 700 586 317 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.5 16.0 16.3 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.4 48.1 49.8 51.5 53.3 56.7 60.1 63.5 66.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 34 23 19 22 40 53 40 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 34. 38. 43. 44. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 46.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 GRACE 09/09/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.18 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.29 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.31 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.68 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.87 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 7.2% 5.2% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 1.4% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.2% 1.8% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072015 GRACE 09/09/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 GRACE 09/09/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 22 22 22 24 26 27 26 27 28 31 35 37 39 40 41 18HR AGO 25 24 22 22 22 24 26 27 26 27 28 31 35 37 39 40 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 23 25 26 25 26 27 30 34 36 38 39 40 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 19 20 19 20 21 24 28 30 32 33 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT