* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/08/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 114 111 105 96 77 61 44 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 114 111 105 96 77 61 44 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 111 105 94 83 64 51 42 35 29 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 9 9 9 14 15 17 16 22 24 26 24 28 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -5 -5 -2 0 1 3 5 0 -1 -1 3 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 110 120 136 137 165 218 234 228 226 222 252 270 275 272 269 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.4 25.8 25.2 24.3 23.2 23.6 23.6 23.4 23.3 23.6 23.8 23.9 24.1 24.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 127 121 114 105 93 97 96 94 93 96 98 99 101 101 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -49.7 -50.0 -50.2 -50.1 -50.0 -50.3 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 -50.7 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 73 69 66 65 57 54 50 48 44 38 34 32 30 25 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 31 31 29 26 24 20 18 15 13 11 9 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 67 56 39 44 33 51 38 44 16 15 8 12 38 46 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 77 67 14 7 27 4 -2 9 -8 -8 -24 -7 -16 -46 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 -2 -1 6 6 1 6 5 3 3 5 4 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 430 402 399 425 414 400 453 540 622 688 767 855 931 1011 1086 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.3 23.0 23.7 24.3 25.5 26.4 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.1 115.7 116.3 116.9 118.1 119.3 120.4 121.4 122.4 123.3 124.3 125.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 8 8 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -13. -24. -34. -44. -52. -60. -66. -71. -74. -77. -80. -84. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -13. -19. -23. -26. -26. -27. -25. -24. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 1. -5. -14. -33. -49. -66. -80. -91.-101.-109.-115.-119.-124.-124.-123. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 21.5 114.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/08/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.75 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 337.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/08/15 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##