* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/08/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 39 38 34 30 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 39 38 34 30 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 37 35 33 29 26 23 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 17 20 22 25 30 31 37 36 46 46 44 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 8 6 1 1 0 2 -2 3 1 0 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 256 264 268 268 285 290 291 281 285 300 297 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.2 25.7 25.7 25.3 24.5 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 121 122 123 125 123 124 123 118 118 114 106 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.8 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 45 45 46 48 53 55 56 55 57 56 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 24 22 21 17 15 14 16 15 14 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 3 2 0 -2 -16 -17 -14 0 -11 -11 -27 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 -17 13 0 -9 -19 -8 0 31 -17 -36 -78 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 -3 -2 -6 -7 -5 -7 -3 -5 0 -3 11 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 834 803 777 723 673 579 522 494 502 531 605 722 832 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.7 27.0 27.6 28.5 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 150.6 151.2 151.8 152.6 153.4 155.1 156.5 157.7 158.7 159.6 160.5 161.4 162.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -8. -18. -29. -39. -44. -46. -49. -52. -59. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -13. -14. -15. -19. -21. -19. -18. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -17. -21. -31. -40. -51. -56. -58. -61. -66. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 26.4 150.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/08/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.50 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 302.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/08/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##