* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072015 09/07/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 35 34 33 31 31 33 33 33 35 37 39 40 41 43 V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 35 34 33 31 31 33 33 33 35 37 39 40 41 43 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 34 32 29 27 24 23 21 20 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 19 21 22 24 24 25 21 29 32 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 8 6 5 2 2 2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 248 244 248 249 253 263 266 263 264 263 277 297 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.7 28.0 28.2 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 138 138 139 135 139 142 155 153 155 158 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 138 138 139 135 139 141 155 153 152 154 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 11 11 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 44 46 45 44 48 45 49 47 50 51 56 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 10 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 16 10 3 -5 -6 -25 -19 -26 -28 -27 -9 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 6 7 -2 5 8 24 3 8 -9 10 7 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -8 -5 -1 -1 -6 -4 -1 -3 -1 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1913 1807 1687 1570 1466 1277 1161 1017 777 646 402 154 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.7 38.3 39.9 41.6 43.3 46.6 49.8 53.0 56.2 59.4 62.3 64.8 67.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 17 16 16 16 15 15 15 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 13 12 11 20 28 22 22 36 54 47 43 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 20. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.0 36.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 GRACE 09/07/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.29 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.60 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 352.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.52 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.69 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.71 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 10.2% 7.0% 5.5% 2.7% 6.5% 5.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.8% 0.6% 1.6% 0.8% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.1% 2.8% 2.4% 1.1% 2.7% 2.1% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072015 GRACE 09/07/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 GRACE 09/07/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 36 35 34 33 31 31 33 33 33 35 37 39 40 41 43 18HR AGO 40 39 37 36 35 34 32 32 34 34 34 36 38 40 41 42 44 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 33 31 31 33 33 33 35 37 39 40 41 43 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 28 26 26 28 28 28 30 32 34 35 36 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT