* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/07/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 41 40 38 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 41 40 38 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 40 39 35 31 27 24 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 22 25 25 27 25 34 41 42 45 50 49 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 -1 -4 0 0 0 -3 -1 -2 -3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 274 276 280 283 269 276 289 290 290 291 301 291 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.1 25.2 24.9 24.7 24.9 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 122 122 123 124 125 123 113 110 108 110 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.7 -51.0 -51.3 -51.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 52 53 50 50 50 55 56 57 55 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 21 20 20 17 15 13 12 10 10 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 1 0 -8 -15 -20 -21 -37 -32 -29 -10 -12 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -26 -40 -37 -32 -2 9 -10 -8 5 -4 -30 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 3 0 -9 -4 -11 -8 -7 -4 -7 -8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 883 856 837 805 776 706 647 613 598 608 649 722 816 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.3 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.4 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.4 150.1 150.8 151.6 152.3 154.0 155.6 157.0 158.2 159.3 160.5 161.8 163.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -10. -20. -32. -42. -49. -53. -56. -60. -67. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -8. -14. -18. -21. -20. -19. -20. -18. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -12. -22. -34. -46. -55. -62. -69. -71. -74. -79. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 25.9 149.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/07/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/07/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##