* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152015 09/06/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 47 54 62 69 84 91 91 85 78 70 66 61 58 57 56 53 V (KT) LAND 40 47 54 62 69 84 91 91 85 78 70 66 61 58 57 56 53 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 51 56 63 77 86 89 84 76 67 59 53 49 47 45 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 11 7 6 7 9 12 11 17 9 8 6 5 6 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -4 -1 -2 -4 -3 -7 -7 -4 -3 0 0 1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 25 19 34 46 69 96 110 131 121 126 127 123 185 226 223 219 245 SST (C) 29.3 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.5 28.5 27.4 26.9 26.6 26.0 25.1 25.0 25.0 25.0 24.8 24.5 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 162 165 163 160 150 137 131 128 122 113 112 112 112 109 105 103 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -50.7 -51.1 -51.2 -50.3 -51.1 -50.4 -50.8 -50.4 -50.7 -50.5 -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 85 84 84 83 82 79 75 69 64 63 57 51 46 42 41 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 20 21 24 26 27 26 26 24 25 23 21 20 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 30 36 31 28 21 34 37 55 62 70 31 30 18 26 15 23 0 200 MB DIV 89 97 112 98 71 106 90 51 19 45 24 1 -5 -1 19 2 0 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -6 -7 -6 -1 0 1 0 0 0 4 -2 5 0 4 2 LAND (KM) 727 708 710 725 682 594 581 556 574 630 694 768 869 979 1062 1121 1141 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.6 15.4 16.2 17.0 18.6 19.9 20.9 21.7 22.4 22.9 23.5 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.4 110.2 111.0 111.8 113.4 114.6 115.7 116.8 117.9 119.3 121.0 122.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 8 7 6 6 8 8 7 7 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 23 27 32 11 4 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 58.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 17. 18. 19. 19. 17. 16. 15. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 11. 11. 8. 9. 6. 3. 2. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 15. 9. 2. -2. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 22. 29. 44. 51. 51. 45. 38. 30. 26. 21. 18. 17. 16. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.8 108.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152015 FIFTEEN 09/06/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.87 12.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 7.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.53 6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.71 8.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -18.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.93 -9.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.78 6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.24 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.76 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 59% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.8% 59.5% 41.0% 27.1% 18.1% 46.8% 58.8% 37.2% Logistic: 26.3% 75.5% 55.3% 40.7% 40.0% 62.0% 59.0% 11.8% Bayesian: 17.1% 74.6% 69.3% 52.9% 23.1% 77.3% 56.2% 1.8% Consensus: 20.1% 69.9% 55.2% 40.2% 27.1% 62.1% 58.0% 16.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 FIFTEEN 09/06/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##