* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072015 09/06/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 48 50 54 55 55 56 53 53 53 54 52 51 54 53 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 48 50 54 55 55 56 53 53 53 54 52 51 54 53 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 45 47 49 53 53 51 48 45 41 39 36 34 31 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 5 5 5 10 13 14 20 23 25 24 32 34 35 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 9 7 5 6 10 8 5 6 1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 110 149 200 212 214 225 241 244 232 237 263 275 262 254 257 267 278 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.3 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 141 147 147 145 138 138 137 134 137 142 142 152 151 154 154 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 141 147 147 145 138 138 137 133 135 139 138 149 147 150 150 153 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 700-500 MB RH 56 54 53 52 53 50 50 48 49 45 47 46 50 48 52 53 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 13 14 16 15 14 14 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 27 35 32 23 21 20 17 8 6 -5 -7 -13 -4 -14 -19 -29 -29 200 MB DIV -5 -10 -25 -16 -12 -3 21 22 5 5 0 6 -7 22 0 18 -1 700-850 TADV -2 1 3 2 -1 -3 -9 -5 2 -4 -6 -4 -3 0 -2 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1168 1306 1446 1592 1739 1844 1692 1484 1313 1174 1092 1000 814 698 616 347 74 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.0 29.3 30.7 32.1 33.5 36.4 39.3 42.4 45.3 48.0 50.5 53.0 55.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 14 13 12 12 11 12 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 12 14 17 18 14 13 25 30 20 22 33 48 53 48 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. -12. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. -0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 14. 15. 15. 16. 13. 13. 13. 14. 12. 11. 14. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.3 28.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 GRACE 09/06/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.83 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.66 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.53 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 302.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.58 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.75 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.07 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 18.1% 12.0% 8.9% 5.7% 10.5% 13.3% 15.5% Logistic: 10.9% 21.7% 17.6% 10.2% 5.7% 9.6% 5.6% 2.5% Bayesian: 1.9% 30.8% 11.0% 0.3% 0.5% 3.5% 0.4% 0.3% Consensus: 6.5% 23.5% 13.6% 6.5% 4.0% 7.9% 6.4% 6.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 GRACE 09/06/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 45 48 50 54 55 55 56 53 53 53 54 52 51 54 53 18HR AGO 40 39 41 44 46 50 51 51 52 49 49 49 50 48 47 50 49 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 41 45 46 46 47 44 44 44 45 43 42 45 44 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 36 37 37 38 35 35 35 36 34 33 36 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT