* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/06/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 46 44 42 40 38 35 31 26 25 23 27 26 27 26 27 V (KT) LAND 55 50 46 44 42 40 38 35 31 26 25 23 27 26 27 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 49 45 42 39 33 30 27 25 24 23 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 21 23 24 22 23 17 21 26 25 25 37 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 11 6 5 4 3 6 4 0 0 5 -5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 260 262 256 260 285 281 280 287 291 266 255 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.4 27.2 27.5 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 129 130 129 129 128 126 127 127 127 135 138 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.3 -50.8 -50.7 -50.4 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 52 51 53 56 56 55 59 60 65 66 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 31 31 30 28 26 23 21 20 19 17 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 75 64 41 39 32 22 17 21 14 15 19 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 33 29 6 1 -25 -19 -15 -21 -3 28 5 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 28 19 18 19 21 6 3 0 -7 -1 -4 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 861 843 832 819 812 778 711 616 508 416 326 264 301 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.8 23.4 23.9 24.4 25.0 25.3 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.6 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.0 147.5 147.9 148.4 148.9 149.9 151.1 152.4 154.0 155.7 157.5 159.2 161.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 5 7 7 8 7 2 3 4 2 12 20 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -11. -16. -20. -23. -27. -29. -31. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -15. -16. -18. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -20. -24. -29. -30. -32. -28. -29. -28. -29. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.2 147.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/06/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/06/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##