* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 66 63 59 56 55 55 54 53 50 48 41 42 44 47 49 V (KT) LAND 75 70 66 63 59 56 55 55 54 53 50 48 41 42 44 47 49 V (KT) LGEM 75 70 66 63 61 56 52 48 45 42 40 38 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 17 19 16 26 20 20 18 23 21 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 4 5 4 9 1 3 3 4 4 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 273 269 272 266 251 267 261 275 284 301 312 317 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 132 131 132 131 133 131 129 129 128 127 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 -50.8 -50.4 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 49 51 50 50 53 53 55 57 57 56 56 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 32 33 31 33 33 32 30 30 28 28 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 87 87 87 72 63 56 44 34 29 26 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 0 0 12 25 47 13 10 -6 -2 -33 -28 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 11 13 14 17 23 24 21 8 5 3 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1035 1014 994 977 961 933 908 884 850 785 720 651 584 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.6 21.0 22.0 23.1 24.0 24.6 24.8 24.8 24.6 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.9 145.1 145.3 145.5 145.7 146.2 146.9 147.7 148.6 149.6 150.5 151.2 152.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 8 6 5 4 4 6 6 6 8 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. -19. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -7. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. -20. -20. -21. -22. -25. -27. -34. -33. -31. -28. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 19.6 144.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/04/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.26 1.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.14 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.22 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 464.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.34 -1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.59 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.26 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 15.0% 10.0% 8.3% 4.4% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 5.2% 3.4% 2.8% 1.5% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##