* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP142015 09/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 53 51 44 38 30 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 53 51 44 38 30 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 50 48 40 34 28 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 16 19 22 24 20 20 22 24 30 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 2 1 0 0 1 -1 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 209 213 215 216 238 231 247 224 230 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 142 139 135 131 128 124 122 119 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -53.2 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 56 54 49 45 40 36 37 37 41 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 16 14 10 7 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 14 11 16 18 5 5 4 8 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 37 28 35 31 -6 17 22 12 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 4 9 2 5 3 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 709 643 580 547 519 527 597 664 724 792 865 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.3 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.7 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.8 115.8 115.8 116.0 116.1 116.7 117.6 118.5 119.5 120.5 121.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 9 7 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -15. -20. -21. -22. -23. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -14. -18. -20. -19. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 1. -6. -12. -20. -26. -32. -36. -36. -35. -35. -35. -36. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.3 115.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142015 KEVIN 09/04/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.59 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 293.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 2.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 7.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 KEVIN 09/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##