* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 59 60 61 58 57 52 42 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 59 59 60 61 58 57 52 42 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 58 58 57 51 44 37 30 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 22 15 21 27 14 18 17 28 34 47 58 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 9 2 -5 -1 3 3 3 7 4 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 308 283 234 192 174 202 211 247 235 259 266 250 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.2 24.8 24.2 24.1 23.3 21.9 19.4 16.9 14.8 13.9 14.2 14.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 116 112 106 105 97 82 63 64 65 66 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -52.3 -53.1 -53.5 -54.4 -54.8 -54.7 -53.8 -53.0 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.6 0.6 1.3 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 50 50 50 46 46 45 47 50 46 39 37 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 30 32 34 32 33 31 30 29 26 22 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 28 50 78 85 83 62 46 25 37 53 34 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 24 73 79 50 8 8 28 36 23 4 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 8 12 14 11 5 20 17 15 10 15 -67 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 915 1043 1171 1316 1460 1771 1734 1413 1112 917 992 664 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.9 31.0 32.0 33.3 34.6 37.5 40.4 43.2 45.7 48.0 49.9 51.6 53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 162.9 163.5 164.0 164.3 164.6 164.8 164.6 163.6 160.5 155.2 148.6 140.9 133.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 14 14 14 16 19 23 25 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 790 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -17. -21. -25. -30. -36. -40. -44. -47. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -3. -10. -20. -32. -43. -54. -60. -68. -78. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 5. 2. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 3. 1. -0. -2. -6. -10. -30. -27. -24. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 1. -2. -3. -8. -18. -31. -50. -69.-105.-118.-130.-146.-156. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 29.9 162.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/04/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 415.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##