* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 31 30 28 26 24 25 26 30 33 34 37 39 41 43 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 31 30 28 26 24 25 26 30 33 34 37 39 41 43 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 30 28 27 24 21 20 20 22 25 27 28 29 31 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 32 36 38 36 29 21 17 13 18 29 31 31 26 22 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 1 0 0 -7 -7 -10 -6 -7 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 282 279 277 280 283 289 301 331 302 262 249 236 238 232 234 246 316 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.3 29.0 29.1 28.7 28.0 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 132 133 135 140 150 152 146 136 130 128 123 121 121 121 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 118 119 120 121 125 132 133 127 118 112 108 104 100 99 98 98 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 -55.7 -54.9 -54.7 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 7 7 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 39 38 36 35 38 41 44 52 57 52 42 40 38 38 36 38 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 10 9 8 7 8 10 12 12 14 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -46 -55 -54 -45 -42 -25 -16 -3 -20 -44 -58 -80 -84 -86 -89 -86 200 MB DIV -17 -24 -25 -20 -23 -14 -29 1 6 -2 -30 -5 -5 -2 -1 3 1 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 1 1 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 -1 0 1 7 8 LAND (KM) 1968 2060 2151 2243 2334 2347 2374 2473 2429 2325 2248 2206 2177 2166 2167 2145 2115 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.7 23.1 24.0 25.2 26.6 28.0 29.3 30.3 31.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.0 36.9 37.8 38.7 39.6 41.3 42.4 42.8 42.4 41.3 40.0 38.8 37.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 8 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 15 16 16 20 25 31 26 10 7 6 4 2 3 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 775 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. 21. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -11. -13. -17. -20. -22. -25. -27. -26. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -11. -9. -9. -7. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -10. -9. -5. -2. -1. 2. 4. 6. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.9 36.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/04/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062015 FRED 09/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/04/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 32 31 30 28 26 24 25 26 30 33 34 37 39 41 43 18HR AGO 35 34 33 32 31 29 27 25 26 27 31 34 35 38 40 42 44 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 27 25 23 24 25 29 32 33 36 38 40 42 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 22 20 18 19 20 24 27 28 31 33 35 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT