* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP142015 09/03/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 51 52 51 48 43 37 31 28 24 25 26 27 27 28 28 V (KT) LAND 45 49 51 52 51 48 43 37 31 28 24 25 26 27 27 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 51 50 46 41 35 31 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 14 17 18 19 19 23 30 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 1 1 -1 0 1 -1 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 205 211 215 212 218 223 243 222 224 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.1 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 144 142 136 132 129 125 122 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 58 55 50 43 41 39 41 44 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 10 7 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 13 14 10 13 16 13 9 16 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 34 39 27 26 0 25 17 30 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 1 4 6 5 7 12 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 783 746 696 650 608 564 592 645 716 777 837 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.0 19.5 20.1 20.6 21.4 21.8 22.1 22.3 22.4 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.8 115.9 115.9 116.0 116.1 116.4 117.1 117.9 118.9 119.9 120.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 12 10 8 7 5 5 4 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -10. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -18. -18. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -2. -8. -14. -17. -21. -20. -19. -18. -18. -17. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.4 115.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142015 KEVIN 09/03/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.67 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.24 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.35 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.61 -4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.82 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.70 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.4% 27.2% 23.4% 18.8% 13.0% 18.3% 15.4% 11.9% Logistic: 9.8% 12.0% 5.7% 4.1% 1.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.5% 13.3% 9.7% 7.6% 4.9% 6.5% 5.3% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 KEVIN 09/03/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##