* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/03/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 31 30 30 27 27 26 30 34 37 40 40 40 39 39 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 31 30 30 27 27 26 30 34 37 40 40 40 39 39 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 29 28 25 22 20 20 21 25 29 32 33 34 36 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 33 34 38 38 34 26 18 7 9 21 27 31 24 22 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 1 -1 1 2 3 0 0 -3 -5 -7 -6 -5 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 279 279 278 278 279 285 296 325 325 247 216 221 221 227 215 227 229 SST (C) 27.0 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.9 29.0 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 124 128 130 132 133 136 140 148 150 138 135 129 125 121 120 121 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 116 117 119 120 121 123 129 130 120 116 111 106 101 99 98 99 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -55.0 -55.2 -55.5 -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 39 38 38 35 35 42 41 50 53 53 46 38 32 29 30 37 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 12 9 9 7 7 9 11 12 12 12 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -37 -42 -50 -51 -41 -43 -38 -30 -14 -12 -28 -33 -41 -27 -9 -9 200 MB DIV -5 -19 -21 -19 -17 -21 -12 -23 13 -9 7 -6 -26 -14 2 0 -23 700-850 TADV 7 4 0 0 1 0 1 4 0 4 -8 -13 -7 -11 -5 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1854 1942 2028 2114 2201 2372 2409 2467 2523 2406 2298 2212 2164 2153 2159 2158 2128 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.7 23.0 23.7 24.7 25.8 27.1 28.5 29.9 31.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.9 35.8 36.6 37.4 38.3 40.0 41.2 41.9 42.1 41.6 40.7 39.5 38.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 6 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 15 16 16 16 17 20 24 31 13 9 6 5 3 2 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 21. 20. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. -20. -23. -25. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -9. -13. -14. -12. -11. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -8. -8. -9. -5. -1. 2. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.8 34.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/03/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 378.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/03/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 33 31 30 30 27 27 26 30 34 37 40 40 40 39 39 18HR AGO 35 34 33 31 30 30 27 27 26 30 34 37 40 40 40 39 39 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 28 28 25 25 24 28 32 35 38 38 38 37 37 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 24 21 21 20 24 28 31 34 34 34 33 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT