* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP142015 09/03/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 36 36 35 35 34 34 34 36 39 42 45 49 53 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 36 36 35 35 34 34 34 36 39 42 45 49 53 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 37 37 35 32 30 28 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 7 8 11 14 12 11 9 11 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -1 -4 0 -2 -1 -3 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 223 182 173 196 198 207 207 250 227 200 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 149 148 143 138 134 133 131 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 63 64 60 55 48 49 48 52 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 11 9 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -2 -1 4 2 8 17 16 6 -4 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 57 51 49 45 26 19 18 36 36 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 0 1 3 3 5 5 3 11 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 841 791 744 692 643 532 471 438 451 502 557 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.6 21.3 21.9 22.2 22.3 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.3 115.3 115.3 115.2 115.1 114.8 114.9 115.2 115.7 116.4 117.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 17 14 12 10 7 5 4 3 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 25. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -15. -18. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.2 115.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142015 KEVIN 09/03/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.80 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.43 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.48 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.75 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.33 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.61 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 23.5% 18.1% 13.8% 0.0% 16.3% 14.4% 13.5% Logistic: 2.7% 7.5% 4.0% 2.1% 1.3% 1.8% 1.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 10.4% 7.4% 5.3% 0.4% 6.0% 5.2% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 KEVIN 09/03/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##