* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/03/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 32 30 29 24 24 22 23 25 29 32 31 32 32 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 32 30 29 24 24 22 23 25 29 32 31 32 32 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 31 28 26 23 22 21 21 23 26 29 32 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 32 31 29 28 32 33 28 22 16 18 13 21 23 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -1 3 0 0 2 1 0 -1 -3 -4 -3 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 275 281 284 283 278 282 291 314 333 324 265 259 238 251 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.4 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.6 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 114 117 121 124 128 132 134 136 143 147 142 135 132 131 130 129 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 106 109 112 115 118 119 120 125 128 122 115 111 109 108 106 105 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 -55.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 39 37 37 38 36 42 44 51 55 65 64 58 51 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 11 11 8 8 6 6 6 8 10 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -26 -25 -18 -24 -32 -26 -36 -42 -60 -33 -34 -28 -20 -17 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -26 -16 -11 -15 -18 -22 -29 -21 -25 22 5 11 2 14 3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 4 -1 0 2 1 2 7 5 10 -1 6 0 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1651 1732 1814 1896 1978 2141 2303 2397 2436 2536 2464 2352 2268 2219 2176 2125 2071 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.7 21.9 22.3 22.7 23.2 24.1 25.3 26.5 27.7 28.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.9 33.7 34.5 35.3 36.1 37.7 39.3 40.6 41.4 41.7 41.7 41.4 41.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 6 4 3 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 6 11 14 15 16 18 21 25 19 11 9 8 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -11. -15. -17. -19. -19. -19. -21. -23. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -11. -12. -16. -17. -18. -16. -13. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -11. -11. -13. -12. -10. -6. -3. -4. -3. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.7 32.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/03/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 373.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.45 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/03/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 33 32 32 30 29 24 24 22 23 25 29 32 31 32 32 18HR AGO 35 34 33 32 32 30 29 24 24 22 23 25 29 32 31 32 32 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 28 27 22 22 20 21 23 27 30 29 30 30 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 23 22 17 17 15 16 18 22 25 24 25 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT