* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/03/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 90 90 91 92 88 83 81 79 74 70 68 67 67 68 69 V (KT) LAND 90 90 90 90 91 92 88 83 81 79 74 70 68 67 67 68 69 V (KT) LGEM 90 88 86 85 84 85 84 79 72 65 57 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 6 9 9 5 8 14 17 20 22 26 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 1 2 4 3 3 8 10 7 5 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 274 262 266 253 279 267 272 247 254 255 265 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.1 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 141 141 140 135 130 127 126 126 123 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.4 -50.8 -50.8 -50.3 -50.7 -50.4 -50.9 -50.2 -50.7 -50.0 -50.5 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 51 51 51 50 49 51 56 56 57 57 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 34 35 35 39 39 38 39 40 38 37 36 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 64 70 82 83 98 104 103 95 88 82 70 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 -1 -6 -2 14 -4 32 28 58 38 52 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 6 2 1 2 9 18 27 37 33 31 15 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1217 1186 1156 1127 1099 1056 1020 1006 992 987 986 994 1008 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.9 20.8 21.7 22.6 23.6 24.7 26.0 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.3 143.6 143.8 144.1 144.3 144.7 145.1 145.4 145.8 146.3 147.0 148.0 149.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 21 21 20 19 13 7 4 2 2 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -8. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. -30. -31. -32. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 7. 7. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. -2. -7. -9. -11. -16. -20. -22. -23. -23. -22. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.2 143.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/03/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.21 1.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.69 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.18 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 612.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.16 -0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.92 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.19 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.45 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 24.2% 16.9% 16.7% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.0% 10.9% 4.4% 4.4% 0.9% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.6% 11.9% 7.1% 7.0% 4.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/03/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##