* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/02/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 97 96 95 93 90 91 90 89 87 86 85 84 85 86 87 V (KT) LAND 100 98 97 96 95 93 90 91 90 89 87 86 85 84 85 86 87 V (KT) LGEM 100 97 93 90 88 86 84 82 79 75 71 67 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 11 9 3 1 4 3 12 11 16 20 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 7 8 7 6 5 3 5 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 288 301 316 53 268 296 282 267 275 268 281 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 142 141 139 137 136 133 128 125 127 127 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.2 -50.5 -50.6 -50.1 -50.6 -50.0 -50.6 -50.2 -50.6 -50.1 -50.2 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 54 55 55 54 53 54 51 52 53 52 54 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 35 35 35 34 38 38 41 41 41 41 41 41 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 64 64 60 56 66 81 84 95 90 105 92 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 33 10 -7 -5 4 27 21 27 37 57 20 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 5 2 2 3 6 6 11 21 24 34 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1459 1401 1343 1296 1250 1190 1142 1108 1071 1054 1031 1024 1025 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.6 19.2 19.9 20.7 21.6 22.6 23.6 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.2 141.7 142.2 142.6 143.0 143.5 143.9 144.2 144.6 144.9 145.4 145.9 146.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 14 14 13 14 14 12 7 2 1 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -13. -20. -26. -31. -35. -37. -39. -40. -41. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 2. 3. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -9. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15. -14. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.1 141.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/02/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.12 1.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.72 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.26 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 671.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.09 -0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.32 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.90 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.44 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 22.6% 18.0% 13.3% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 5.1% 2.5% 2.3% 0.3% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 9.3% 6.8% 5.2% 4.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/02/15 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##