* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/01/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 101 98 97 93 94 95 96 95 93 91 91 85 84 80 78 V (KT) LAND 105 101 101 98 97 93 94 95 96 95 93 91 91 85 84 80 78 V (KT) LGEM 105 101 97 94 91 88 87 86 84 81 78 73 67 62 59 57 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 7 6 3 3 3 6 11 16 20 24 22 24 20 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 10 9 10 6 4 3 3 5 6 5 8 6 1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 316 336 296 294 328 253 262 294 270 283 266 259 258 258 269 266 264 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 145 142 141 138 136 135 131 126 125 127 128 127 125 123 123 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -49.8 -50.2 -50.6 -50.5 -50.2 -50.5 -50.5 -50.8 -50.7 -50.5 -50.3 -50.5 -50.1 -50.3 -50.1 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 8 8 7 8 6 7 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 54 55 54 54 54 52 53 50 49 48 53 54 56 53 54 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 34 38 37 37 37 41 41 42 43 43 42 43 40 39 37 35 850 MB ENV VOR 69 65 67 64 61 67 91 108 114 113 124 109 102 92 97 85 66 200 MB DIV 32 42 31 -1 -5 14 21 28 8 27 34 19 51 20 20 -9 15 700-850 TADV 6 4 2 3 3 3 4 8 12 22 24 28 24 21 18 5 4 LAND (KM) 1539 1470 1402 1348 1295 1224 1165 1120 1077 1042 998 967 937 899 875 852 831 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.4 20.1 20.9 21.8 22.7 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.5 141.1 141.7 142.2 142.6 143.2 143.7 144.1 144.5 144.9 145.5 146.1 146.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 14 14 13 13 13 11 6 1 1 2 3 2 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -15. -22. -29. -34. -39. -42. -43. -45. -46. -49. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 7. 3. 3. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -4. -7. -8. -12. -11. -10. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -20. -21. -25. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.8 140.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/01/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.09 0.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.77 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.28 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 725.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.02 -0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.24 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.87 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.37 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 21.1% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 6.4% 3.6% 3.3% 0.4% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 9.2% 5.9% 1.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/01/15 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##