* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/01/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 38 36 35 35 35 35 33 33 30 31 28 27 22 19 18 V (KT) LAND 45 41 38 36 35 35 35 35 33 33 30 31 28 27 22 19 18 V (KT) LGEM 45 40 37 35 34 32 31 30 28 28 27 27 27 27 28 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 20 25 27 27 23 22 27 27 25 20 19 20 25 29 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 -3 -6 0 0 0 -1 0 1 0 0 0 -5 -7 -7 SHEAR DIR 249 242 239 242 245 257 261 263 270 268 275 301 310 332 332 342 345 SST (C) 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.6 27.1 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 27.9 27.3 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 114 115 116 116 119 125 129 133 132 134 136 134 126 124 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 105 105 105 106 105 108 112 115 117 116 116 117 114 107 105 102 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.7 -54.9 -55.2 -55.5 -55.9 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 53 52 49 47 44 41 37 40 42 51 51 56 57 62 61 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 15 14 14 14 13 11 11 9 9 6 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 9 4 4 -4 -9 -21 -29 -37 -50 -36 -51 -50 -66 -56 -54 -69 -88 200 MB DIV 13 -4 -3 4 -12 -8 -6 -16 -10 -11 -14 -13 0 -1 -14 -19 -7 700-850 TADV -1 -1 1 8 7 0 4 6 5 2 4 3 4 5 6 0 0 LAND (KM) 1140 1216 1295 1371 1449 1598 1761 1914 2066 2201 2317 2407 2435 2313 2199 2114 2025 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.9 21.6 22.4 23.3 24.1 25.0 26.0 27.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.6 28.4 29.3 30.1 30.9 32.4 34.0 35.5 37.0 38.3 39.4 40.2 40.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 8 13 20 20 16 11 9 5 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. -22. -22. -24. -24. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -12. -12. -15. -14. -17. -18. -23. -26. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.6 27.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/01/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.40 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.21 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.12 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.29 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 350.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.53 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.31 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.60 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 3.3% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/01/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 41 38 36 35 35 35 35 33 33 30 31 28 27 22 19 18 18HR AGO 45 44 41 39 38 38 38 38 36 36 33 34 31 30 25 22 21 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 38 38 38 38 36 36 33 34 31 30 25 22 21 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 34 34 34 32 32 29 30 27 26 21 18 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT