* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142015 09/01/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 34 36 39 43 50 49 46 38 31 28 27 28 30 30 30 V (KT) LAND 30 33 34 36 39 43 50 49 46 38 31 28 27 28 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 35 35 34 31 29 26 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 17 20 20 16 13 13 14 21 25 30 24 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 1 -4 0 -4 1 0 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 255 256 246 238 259 191 224 193 206 197 197 193 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.4 26.9 26.4 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 159 158 157 157 150 146 142 136 130 124 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 73 74 72 71 69 65 59 56 52 43 38 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 14 15 15 18 14 12 8 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 8 10 6 3 -11 -16 -21 0 11 7 9 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 61 63 55 52 27 45 12 26 10 4 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 0 1 5 8 7 -2 -3 -4 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1133 1135 1126 1073 1027 900 791 662 541 414 330 269 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.8 13.4 14.1 14.8 16.6 18.3 19.8 21.0 22.1 22.9 23.6 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.1 113.7 114.2 114.7 115.4 115.8 115.8 115.6 115.1 114.8 114.6 114.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 59 77 74 53 42 29 13 8 6 4 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -14. -16. -16. -17. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 0. -2. -8. -12. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 20. 19. 16. 8. 1. -2. -3. -2. -0. -0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 112.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/01/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.93 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.64 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 20.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.5% 14.4% 13.5% Logistic: 3.5% 15.5% 5.9% 2.7% 2.4% 5.2% 11.5% 11.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 25.6% 11.6% 4.4% 1.8% 19.4% 10.1% 5.5% Consensus: 5.0% 20.6% 5.8% 2.4% 1.4% 13.7% 12.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/01/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##