* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/01/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 111 111 109 107 104 99 100 97 99 98 97 97 96 94 95 92 V (KT) LAND 115 111 111 109 107 104 99 100 97 99 98 97 97 96 94 95 92 V (KT) LGEM 115 109 105 102 101 98 91 85 80 78 79 76 75 74 72 72 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 2 5 1 5 6 6 7 13 18 16 15 15 13 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 3 9 13 8 9 7 5 2 5 5 5 2 3 1 SHEAR DIR 283 22 122 207 56 312 268 254 243 236 260 280 285 282 277 291 281 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 149 145 142 138 134 132 132 131 129 126 125 126 128 129 126 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -50.1 -50.5 -50.1 -50.5 -50.5 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -50.5 -50.8 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 57 56 57 57 56 56 59 61 62 60 61 61 60 57 55 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 36 36 34 37 36 39 37 41 41 41 41 42 41 41 39 850 MB ENV VOR 53 56 56 66 67 49 57 66 85 93 93 96 96 81 71 62 66 200 MB DIV 59 16 20 30 40 29 21 25 32 23 49 36 31 -1 20 -22 37 700-850 TADV 0 7 6 7 5 12 12 9 8 11 16 21 21 21 15 11 12 LAND (KM) 1868 1762 1655 1575 1495 1379 1287 1228 1172 1129 1091 1057 1021 986 945 915 904 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.4 20.0 20.6 21.2 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.5 138.5 139.4 140.1 140.8 141.8 142.6 143.1 143.6 144.0 144.4 144.8 145.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 46 30 24 19 14 9 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 2 3 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -11. -20. -29. -36. -43. -48. -51. -53. -54. -56. -59. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. -1. 2. 1. 4. 2. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -4. -6. -8. -11. -16. -15. -18. -16. -17. -18. -18. -19. -21. -20. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.1 137.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/01/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.03 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.97 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 752.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 2.9% 1.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/01/15 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##